With N900 to be released soon, why hasn’t Nokia (NYSE:NOK) seen a run-up?

Although the Nokia N900 smartphone will the most powerful device in the market very soon, it has flown under the radar and NOK has been relatively flat.  In the past 6 months, NOK is down 1.37%.  This is somewhat of a surprise considering the run-up in Motorola (NYSE:MOT) of 51.89% over the same period, propelled almost exclusively by the Droid.  I am not in the business of predicting stock prices nor do I have a position in either company.  That said, is Wall Street overlooking the potential of the N900 and only wagering on market leaders and the Google Android device manufacturers?  (Click the graphic on the upper right to show relative price changes in device manufacturers over the past 6 months.)

Pros

The N900 will have the best hardware of any smartphone upon release (the specs are truly amazing), which is expected to be within two weeks (although delayed once before). It is the first smartphone to run the popular Firefox web browser which is used by approximately 47.5% of computer users.(1)  The N900 will support a completely open operating system that is Linux-based that looks promising, Maemo 5.

Cons

The N900 is being launched in the U.S. on T-Mobile, which recently suffered a serious network outage.  The device is relatively expensive, like the Droid.  It does not have the iPhone or Android level of app support.  Additionally, and some critics are quick to point this out, the N900 will not have native support for MMS.

Are Investors Overlooking the N900?

The N900 will set the bar for hardware and Maemo 5 has the potential to rival Android.  Will developers and consumer support the product?  It appears that Nokia has taken the “if you build it, they will come” approach.  It could be a blockbuster product.  NOK’s peformance over the past six months, down 1.37%, hardly suggests that anyone on in the market believes in Nokia and the N900.  Why?

(1) Some analysts dispute this figure.  The numbers ranger from about 25% to  the www3school’s estimate of 47.5%.

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