Why Google won’t have antitrust issues with Chrome OS…

I installed a VirtualBox image of Chrome OS that is floating around online. It’s available from gdgt and other less trustworthy sources. To sum it up… waste of time. The test drive was entirely unfilling but it did significantly pique my interest in antitrust concerns.

My Experience

As discussed, Chrome OS is just a boot up to a linux version of the Chome browser (and a very old version… no bookmark sync, extensions or fancy stuff). There’s no flashy boot screen yet (or shutdown screen? … nobody can seem to figure out how to shutdown the OS from within the gdgt build). It does show some promise… especially for Google. Logins are Gmail.coms. If you want to run it, you need to register with Google. Your entire experience in Chrome OS is essentially Google-centric.

Google’s Playbook

This is what I speculate is Google’s playbook: Step 1: Chrome OS is designed for getting people online who aren’t current online. I’m thinking senior citizens, young children and people with insignificant means like some in the developing world. Google just wants more eyeballs and clicks. Viewing and clicking ads are Google’s revenue equation. 97% of Google’s revenue is generated through advertising. Maybe the Chrome OS boot up screen and shutdown screen will be prime property for advertising one day (your undivided attention for a full 5 seconds or so). How much would an advertiser pay to be on every Chrome OS boot screen or shutdown screen for an entire day? Or break it up and target the ads to certain demographics. This will make Super Bowl advertising look like child’s play. I read today some speculation that Google could give away Android-based Nexus One smartphones and profit by bringing more people into the Google world. If that’s even within the realm of possibility, giving away low-end Chrome OS  netbooks seems even more plausible. Step 2: As the gateway drug to the web, more companies will focus on web-based apps or die. When this occurs, many computer users will only need Chrome OS.

Antitrust Issues

The developer build of Chrome OS that I installed comes pre-installed with links to Microsoft Hotmail and Yahoo Mail. These links are probably provided not to spread the adoption of Chrome OS but to alleviate the antitrust concerns that bad boy Microsoft created in the mid-1990s when it tied Internet Explorer to Windows, thus “suffocating” Netscape. But, this makes me ponder… what if the OS is the browser and only the browser? That is the essence of Chrome. Want to run Firefox? You can’t. Want to run Internet Explorer? No way. This differs from the Microsoft fiasco in a number of relevant ways.

First, Microsoft already had market dominance. Almost every PC came pre-installed with Windows or was designed specifically to run it. Chrome OS has zero percent market share. Google is doing a “reverse Microsoft”… like building Internet Explorer first and a crippled Windows second.

Second, Chrome OS is absolutely free. Google is giving it away. If you want Firefox or Internet Explorer, you can strip Chrome OS off your computer and load a different OS. In some cases, this may not be possible if your netbook doesn’t have sufficient specs to run a different OS. Keep in mind that Chrome OS is designed to run on as little as possible and really cheap netbooks may be manufactured that can essentially run Chrome OS and Chrome OS alone.

Third, we now live in a web-centric computing environment. Software has been replaced, essentially, with web apps and that’s where Google dominates. In the Microsoft case, Netscape needed access to the desktop. (For the legal types, think Otter Tail Power Company vs. United States.) Without adequate access, a company would be extinguished. Notably, we’re seeing the web-centric shift in the mobile platform too. I’ve recently read that some significant app developers disgusted with Apple’s App Store are now programming exclusively in HTML5 to get to the mobile market through the browser. Installation is being replaced with bookmarks and favorites. That’s the future of both computing and mobile devices.

Fourth, Google has the “do no evil” motto and I believe it…  but, more importantly, regulators believe it. The Google’s revenue equation just has to stay popular. With whom? Computer users, the voting public, elected officials and regulators. Google is branding the company in the best way possible. Most people pay nothing for Google services and enjoy them immensely.  What about free wifi in airports? Travelers love it.

So, I don’t really see a showdown between Google and government over Chrome OS and antitrust issues. Privacy is where the showdown will be and I’ll save that for another day.

Final Remarks

Google just has to avoid becoming bad boy Microsoft to reign supreme. Chrome OS is a significant component in the ingenious Google strategy. It’s not just a weak alternative to Windows. Donate your eyes and clicks and enjoy.

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