I believe that Google Buzz is primarily aimed at attracting Twitter content right now, not Facebook content. This is a follow up post to the video I recently posted.
If you haven’t watched the video, I’ll sum it up. Google’s core strength is the search business. Google wants to be branded indelibly as the map for the internet. (It didn’t pick the Parisian Love Superbowl advertisement by accident.) Up until now, Google crawled the web to map it. The map was periodically (but not continually) updated. Some sites refreshed daily, some hourly and some nearly instantaneously. Now, more and more, consumers are looking for instantaneous news and communication. Google Buzz was created primarily to bring content to Google instead of the present model of crawling the wires to update Google’s map of the web.
The Twitter Argument
If you want breaking news, you can find it on Twitter and find it faster than anywhere else because all major news outlets bring content to Twitter. Twitter is the king of real-time news. Twitter doesn’t crawl for anything. Google got very lucky recently when it inked a non-exclusive deal to index Twitter. (Microsoft did too.) Although little is known about the contract, the rumor is that Twitter received a combined $25 million for the indexing deals (which, in turn, put Twitter in the black for 2009). This is a threat to Google for a variety of reasons. First, the contract may not be renewed or could go exclusively to Microsoft in the future. Also, the entire Twitter company could fall into unfriendly hands. Google does not like relying on any company that may not commit itself to “openness.” Second, Google probably paid more for the Twitter contract than it cost Google to build its own Twitter-like service, Google Buzz. Third, Google Buzz is virtually guaranteed to be more successful than Twitter due to the tie-in with Gmail which has an installed active user-base of approximately 174 million regular users.
Why Facebook Isn’t a Serious Threat Yet
Facebook has yet to challenge Google’s model of mapping the web. While you can do rudimentary web searches through Facebook, nobody does. Facebook is not populated with the same real-time news content as Twitter. This trend is shifting with the growing number of fan pages and professional accounts but up until now Facebook was simply a place to crack a joke to a large crowd, post pictures of kids or invite people to a party.
HOWEVER, Facebook could easily become a serious threat. It is among the most sticky of all websites. It has an installed user-base of over 400 million users. If it made a serious push to have meaningful content come to Facebook (news outlets, blogs, etc.), it could challenge Google’s efforts to be the best map of the internet perpetually.
Predictions
Twitter will get wiped off the map by Google Buzz. It may continue to exist in a MySpace-like state. Some lesser player could buy it or it might have a weak IPO. The real fight will be Google vs. Facebook but that’s on the horizon and will only occur if Facebook makes a meaningful effort to map the web. The scariest scenario for Google would be Microsoft and Facebook uniting forces. Bing plus Facebook could mount a meaningful long-term challenge to Google. Keep in mind that Microsoft already has a small piece of Facebook. So, Google isn’t simply looking for a piece of the social networking business. It is also playing defense to keep its dominance in mapping the world’s information.
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