A recent survey by Crowd Science reveals that 40% of Blackberry users would prefer an iPhone if they were in the market to purchase a device available today. Similarly, 33% of the same group would prefer an Android device to a Blackberry. 1,092 Blackberry owners were surveyed.
If these numbers are statistically meaningful (BGR reports the survey has a +/- 10% margin of error) and these preferences play out in the marketplace, RIM will suffer immensely (Nasdaq:RIMM stock chart). My assessment is that there is only scenario that rescue RIM. If RIM develops a competitive web browser (the present one stinks) and the mobile market shifts from apps to HTML5 which is platform independent, then RIM could compete. I wonder, however, whether both of these events can happen within a reasonable period of time. RIM is working on a WebKit browser. However, the smartphone market in the U.S. churns phones every two years. Hordes of Blackberry Curve 8330 users are up for new phones within the next year. So, unless RIM kicks it into high gear and rolls out a killer product very soon, it is virtually guaranteed to lose substantial market share (as has been predicted by many).
Speaking of a RIM “killer product,” I posted up a leaked photo of the upcoming Palm Pre-like Blackberry Slider. To put it lightly, the product is not being well received in the Crackberry community. It’s probably not the answer to RIM’s prayers. Also, BGR reports that it failed internal RIM testing four out of five times. This product isn’t looking pretty, literally or figuratively.
Also foreboding for RIM, the Crowd Science report suggests that people who go for iPhone or Android remain loyal to their chosen platform. 92% of iPhone users would prefer another iPhone and 87% of Android users would prefer to remain with Android.
Perhaps if RIM’s stock is beaten up badly (it still has a market cap of $42B), it could become a takeover target. As I relayed, Microsoft is shopping for a device manufacturer to vertically integrate (the Apple model). Maybe that’s the way RIM will shakeout.
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Jon Mallin
Founder of Tech Bottle Blog. Attorney & Amateur Blogger. B.A. University of Michigan 1997 and J.D. NYU School of Law 2000.
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