Click to Visit Stratus0s.Org

It’s been awhile since I last wrote about Chrome OS. I’ve already covered hexxeh’s build back in February. Well, there’s a new kid on the block, Stratus0s, and it’s good, really good. It’s a more recent build and has some neat bells and whistles, including an improved log on system. It has a lot of potential and runs fine (meaning damn fast) on Acer Aspire One hardware. It’s a free download, of course, and touts the following advantages over other OSs:

• No installation. You simply copy the image to a USB stick or an SD card and boot it. Tip: I found the installation somewhat cumbersome in Ubuntu and easier in Windows. YMMV.
• Enhanced look. The UI looks better than Hexxeh’s build, particularly the logon screen. However, there’s not much room to really make Chrome OS shine since it’s almost nothing more than a Chrome browser UI.
• “No HDD. It’s a Cloud.” The OS is designed to rely entirely on cloud storage. Although files can be downloaded locally to a file shelf (space permitting on the USB stick or SD card), fundamentally the idea is to shift everything to the cloud. One advantage of having everything in the cloud is that you can install the OS right on top of the old OS on the USB stick or SD card without data loss, provided you don’t rely on the file shelf. It also protects you against hardware failure.

Stratus0s is a product of Nate Taylor, Steve Pirk and Jordon Wii.  Steve Pirk is active on Google Buzz and Stratus0s has an official Buzz account.   Download Stratus0s from http://stratus0s.org/ and begin using Google’s Chrome OS today.

You might also enjoy:

--Why Google won’t have antitrust issues with Chrome OS… --Google Chrome OS Business-Style in 2011 --Ubuntu Netbook Remix vs. Google Chrome OS [Netbooks] --Chrome OS Netbooks — Hell Yes, Google will give away computers. --Chrome OS World Weakest Link… Google Docs

I don’t think we’ll see anything surprising with Chrome OS other than possible improvements in speed. Afterall, it’s just an OS that boots a browser. It doesn’t support software installation. Chome OS will appeal to enterprises and anyone looking for a really inexpensive netbook (think: WebTV replacement).

It’s been confirmed that Google’s tablet will run Android, not Chrome OS. This makes perfect sense because the gesture/multitouch support is already built into Android. Also, Android is all about widgets and customization. Chrome OS can barely be customized because, as I always repeat, it’s just boot up to a web browser. Sure, you can install a Chrome browser theme but it’s fairly plain vanilla.

Hexxeh’s build of Chrome OS continues to garner media attention, including an impressive mention by the New York Times — Not too bad for a 17 year old computer hobbyist. You can download it today and begin playing with it.

[via Chad Catacchio at The Next Web via VentureBeat]

You might also enjoy:

--Ubuntu Netbook Remix vs. Google Chrome OS [Netbooks] --Chrome OS Netbooks — Hell Yes, Google will give away computers. --OnLive Broadband Gaming coming June 17, 2010 --Civilization Beta Tests on Facebook in June --Chrome OS Flow by Hexxeh Review

I predict that the next decade will be less about one single theme and significantly less about search. Obviously, I am on the outside looking in but these are my thoughts: Google is keenly aware of the fact that this transition is already occurring. To counter this anticipated reduction in traffic, Google has diversified into, well, just about everything relating to your preferences. Google continues to focus on its mission of organizing the world’s information. To do this, it needs to collect information. Where is lacks information, it devises a solution for obtaining it. In no particular order:

Whom do you phone? Google Voice.

To whom do you write? Gmail, Google Wave and Google Buzz.

What do you buy? Google Checkout and Google Product Search.

What do you watch on television? Google TV, which is anticipated to launch with Sony next month.

What do you read? Google Reader and Google Scholar, despite some bumps in the road.

Where do you eat? Google Maps, 800-GOOG-411, Google Places.

What ailments do you have? Google Health, although it appears to be a flop.

Where do you work? Google Profiles.

Where do you live? Google Maps.

What do you look like? Google Profiles and Google Visual Search, perhaps tied together one day.

Where are you? Latitude, Google Buzz and Google Places.

Where did you go and where will you go? Google Calendar.

And, I’m sure I’m missing more than a few fronts where Google is amassing information. As we all know, Google collects this information to sell advertisement space on your screens and mobile devices tailored to you. The genius of this all is that people actually trust Google, perhaps rightfully so. Advertisers do not have access to the answers to every question above, only Google does. Google has been and will be fundamentally an advertising intermediary. The game has changed: it’s no longer about finding something.com hidden away somewhere in the deepest depth of the internet but it’s more likely about giving you what you want, often for free, in exchange for your preferences. What do we receive for free? Search, email, voice transmission, video transmission, web apps, operating systems (albeit not directly but, rather, by eliminating the OS “tax” on devices), news, financial information and the list goes on and on. Most of the world has decided that we benefit from this exchange of preferences for free services. It’s really a unique and fascinating model. Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, recently used the term “platform provider” to describe what Google wants to become. It’s a unique type of company unlike any other.

[As an aside, contrast the Google model with Facebook which simply wants to collect your preferences and share them with the world. The Facebook model is a far less comfortable compromise for the person the least bit concerned about privacy.]

Google is diversifying in other ways too. Google Apps, the enterprise version of the free online office suite, will probably meet with tremendous success. This arena is monetized differently. No business enterprise wants to share its confidential information with Google in exchange for advertisements. Instead, for a reasonable cost, companies pay for the cloud-based services. Google Apps fundamentally differs from just about every other Google property in this regard.

Google sits on a boatload of cash right now and could diversify into other areas as well. It dipped its toes into the hardware water with the Nexus One but I do not anticipate a significant push in the hardware direction. Google simply wants more, better information and faster. By diversifying, Google has solidified itself as the conduit through which we deposit our preferences and information and donate some eyeball movements and mindshare to advertisements that we might find appealing.

[I will likely write a follow-up piece regarding competition in the "platform provider" business with a focus on Facebook.]

You might also enjoy:

--Facebook vs. Google isn’t about Social vs. Search --Why Google Visual Search for Android is Ingenious… --Google Visual Search… Snap Your Phone’s Camera at Anything --Sony XPERIA X10 meets Google Visual Search [VIDEO] --Google Scholar Legal Search…Nipping at the Heels of Westlaw and LexisNexis

Speed and responsiveness were made better by, among other things, improving the javascript used for Docs. My biggest peeve with Google Docs was the lag between choosing some option and seeing an on-screen response. Now, Google Docs truly competes with desktop software in a meaningful way.

These improvements are very important for Google Apps to succeed. Why? Google Docs has competition on the horizon. Microsoft will release an online version of its popular Office suite later this year. This could be a real winner for Microsoft who has struggled with revising Office. The Ribbon and other recent updates have yet to catch on with many. I’m just guessing but I expect the online version will support the semi-familiar Ribbon but it could also have an option to run with drop-down menus. We’ll have to wait and see.

More important than trying to eat up Microsoft is speeding the adoption of Chrome OS. Remember, Chrome OS is simply a web browser. It does not support the installation of software or local apps. It relies entirely on cloud services. I wrote back in November 2009 that Google Docs was the weakest link to adoption of a Chrome OS world. Despite the most recent improvements, Google Docs remains the weakest link in the chain but the progress announced today is substantial.

P.S. Here’s the video I almost forgot to add to the post:

[via Official Google Docs Blog]

You might also enjoy:

--Chrome OS World Weakest Link… Google Docs --Best. Browser. Ever. Google Chrome. [Video] --Google App Inventor… the Cat’s Meow. [VIDEO] --Unbelievable 3D Google Earth with Street Views [VIDEO] --Sony XPERIA X10 meets Google Visual Search [VIDEO]

• A new browser instead of Prism for the web apps. It’s called “Nickel” and it’s based on Chromium, the open source project behind Google’s Chrome browser. Nickel is HTML5 ready.
• New support for up 100+ 3G keys for connectivity.
• VPN support for enterprise. Jolicloud now supports the following VPNs: Cisco OpenConnect, Cisco Concentrator VPN, Microsoft VPN, and OpenVPN.
• Desktop switcher mode. This enables Jolicloud to change from the Ubuntu Netbook Remix-style UI to the traditional Ubuntu-style UI. This is a significant step in making Jolicloud more than just a netbook OS.

There’s a Jolicloud installer for MS Windows and for Linux. The pre-Final version was released two days ago. To download: http://www.jolicloud.com/download#jolicloud-express.  It’s free. Why not try it out?

P.S. Check out the related posts below for my preliminary assessments of Jolicloud.

You might also enjoy:

--Linux Netbook Showdown: Ubuntu Netbook Remix vs. Jolicloud Pre-Beta --Put Jolicloud Alpha Linux on your Netbook.. Now available for download --Ubuntu Netbook Remix vs. Google Chrome OS [Netbooks] --No Nexus Two; Nexus One Major Success for Android, Says Google

Before I give you the “whys” and what factors to consider, I want to caution that Chrome OS Flow supports many netbook configurations but not nearly as many as UNR. Accordingly, if you are considering Chrome OS Flow, visit Hexxeh’s site to check for compatibility. Now that the disclaimer is out of the way, here are the “whys”:

I use my netbook primarily for the browser and to access web apps. Both UNR and Chrome OS Flow support essentially the exact same browser, Chrome, and browser extensions. UNR has an edge though because you can install additional Linux software. So, if you want to run TweetDeck, for example, you might prefer UNR. (By the way, TweetDeck is difficult to use on a netbook because of the low screen resolution.) Chrome OS Flow affords more real estate on your screen for the browser because there is no taskbar, just tabs along the top edge. Also, Chrome OS Flow boots on my Gateway netbook (same hardware as Acer Aspire One) in about 10 seconds and shuts down in a mere 4 seconds. It is lighter on system resources which could extend battery life. Finally, one of my major peeves with UNR is the automatic update feature. Every time I boot up UNR, I have a long menu of updates that need to be installed which take quite a bit of time and bandwidth to install. While updates can be postponed or disabled, long downloads are a necessary evil of UNR. On the other hand, Chrome OS Flow operates with far fewer files (you can install it into a mere 2 GB paritition) and dependencies. Updates take less time and they are on-demand only.

UNR has some upsides, however. You can play MP3s locally, though I switched to the cloud-based GrooveShark music player to facilitate the move to Chrome OS Flow. UNR also supports a variety of other local software, including OpenOffice.Org. So, if you need to work on your computer while outside of Wifi range (or 3G, if you have it), UNR would definitely be a better choice.

If you’re thinking of making the move to Chrome OS Flow, I recommend that you make your system multi-bootable in case you change your mind later. Chrome OS Flow’s Wiki has a good tutorial for multi-boot.

If I’m overlooking some of the pros can cons of UNR and Chrome OS Flow, then please comment below.

You might also enjoy:

--Linux Netbook Showdown: Ubuntu Netbook Remix vs. Jolicloud Pre-Beta --Chrome OS Netbooks — Hell Yes, Google will give away computers. --Chrome OS Netbooks Arrive in June --Jolicloud Netbook OS – Major Improvements --Put Jolicloud Alpha Linux on your Netbook.. Now available for download

This comes as a surprise to many considering Chrome OS is already built like a tank but runs as fast as a Formula One race car. It is unclear what features will be added to the business version but Dewry stated that it would offer more “management muscle.” To me, that sounds like remote access by the IT staff and restricting peons from changing settings.

I would also expect better integration with Google Apps in the business version. Additionally, the home version requires users to login with a gmail account; perhaps the business version will support custom domains.

[via Engadget]

You might also enjoy:

--Mozilla (Firefox, Thunderbird and upcoming Raindrop) vs. Google in 2011? --Chrome OS World Weakest Link… Google Docs --Google Chrome OS World — Winners & Losers in the Paradigm Shift --Try Google Chrome OS Now… Stratus0s --Why Google won’t have antitrust issues with Chrome OS…

Click to visit www.glideos.com

Transmedia Corporation’s “Glide OS 4.0″ is an advertising-free, cloud-based operating system. You can access it through any web browser (including mobile browsers) and through a proprietary desktop app (Windows/Linux and OS X flavors). It has all the bells and whistles of Google’s free cloud services (calendar, email, documents, spreadsheets, etc.) and some other services not offered by Google:

• 30 GB of free online storage in the “GDrive” and a desktop app to automatically sync directories on your computer and in the cloud.
• The best web-based image editor I have seen. While it’s not exactly PhotoShop or GIMP quality, it will do the trick for basic use.
• An online version of PowerPoint called “Presenter.”
• It’s very customizable, e.g. you can set wallpaper and other custom options.

Frankly, I’m not doing justice to the scope of offerings available in Glide OS 4.0.  It’s truly a complete operating system that is remotely hosted. Glide OS 4.0 has been favorably reviewed by InformationWeek, PC World, CNET, eWeek and PC Magazine. Walter Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal and David Pogue of the New York Times both wrote rave reviews about it.

A cloud-based  solution like Glide might be particularly appealing to those running Chrome OS on their netbooks (including the Flow variety I wrote about). Currently, there is nothing comparable though Office 2010 is supposed to have a cloud based version. As noted in many of the reviews of Glide, Microsoft is playing catch up with Transmedia’s free offerings. Glide OS 4.0 is completely free for up to 30 GB of storage. This would be more than sufficient for most and I intend to use it for my online backups. A 250 GB account runs $50 per year.

Check it out at http://glideos.com/.

[Thanks Brian]

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--Mini Review: Nimbuzz [Free] for Blackberry… IM/VOIP Client with Facebook Support --Mini Review: Blackberry MiniPaint Beta (Free) --Mini Review: Blackberry Ubertwitter Beta v0.932 “Leaked” --Mini Review: Seesmic Twitter App for Blackberry & Download Code --Review of BOLT Browser 1.5 for Blackberry (Free) with Download Code

Last night Wired.Com posted up a good article that lays out a strategy Google could follow to dethrone iTunes as the leader in music distribution. Many of the suggestions involve leveraging the cloud and allowing users to stream their music purchases to their devices.

I have been thinking along similar lines. Google Chrome OS is just a browser and nothing more. It can play music stored up in the cloud but nothing locally stored. Although it is only intended for netbooks for the immediate future, if Chrome OS is to make the leap to the desktop, users need a way to manage and play their precious MP3s. If we could upload our music to Google and stream it back down to Android phones and computers running Chrome OS, Google would make inroads on the traditional buy-and-download model.

Music service LaLa offered a cloud-based solution for music but Google lost the bidding war to acquire LaLa to… Apple, of course.  The Wired.Com article is a good read if you find any of this interesting…

http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/02/google’s-music-strategy-past-present-and-future/

You might also enjoy:

--Problems with the Google “Revenue Equation” and Solutions --Google testing allowing some users to login to multiple Google accounts; Thank You! --Google to Launch Facebook Killer, “Google Me” [Rumor] --Where Google is heading… Google Translation for Android --How Google Works [Videos]

1. It’s screaming fast.  Pages pop into place quickly. The rendering is almost immediate and the weakest link in terms of speed is probably the Wifi G card. Oh, and I almost forgot to mention, my netbook boots in about 10 seconds and shuts down in 4 seconds.

2. Hexxeh built in a really cool update feature that will allow you to upgrade by simply clicking through the browser.

3. The Chrome desktop (or whatever you want to call it.. the left-most tab) comes with links to many sites broken down into the following categories: Email, Games, IM, Media, Productivity, Shop, Social and Search. You can flag any of the icons as favorites and they appear on the “My Apps” tab. Ubuntu Netbook Remix and Jolicloud users will find this system familiar.

4. Extensions work just as you would expect and the icons can be rearranged (unlike the fixed icons in the latest Windows version of the Chrome Browser).

5. You get more real estate on your screen with Chrome OS than you do with Ubunutu Netbook Remix and Jolicloud because the tabs are flush against the top of the screen. This is especially helpful on first generation netbooks with 1024 x 600 screen resolution.

6. When you power down, your open tabs are saved for your next session. This is similar to the hibernate mode in other linux varieties and Windows.

Where to Get It

You can download Chrome OS Flow from Hexxeh’s website (http://chromeos.hexxeh.net/) and he has complete installation instructions online. Not all netbook hardware configurations are supported. Also, it seems that the first time you login to your netbook (using your Google ID, of course), the netbook must be connected to a wired internet connection. After you get your credentials by wire, the wifi will work as well.

Many thanks to Curtis Edenfield on Google Buzz (join if you are a techie and haven’t yet checked it out) for tipping me off about the Flow variety of Google Chrome OS.

You might also enjoy:

--Glide Cloud Free OS 4.0 [Mini-Review] --Chrome OS Netbooks Arrive in June --HTC Incredible Full Review [Verizon/Android] --PC Mag’s Video Review of iPad #betterthanexpected --Blackberry BOLT Browser 2.0 Beta [Review]

Mock Up of Chrome Tablet by Gizmodo Blog

The tech world is in a tablet frenzy right now, primarily fueled by the now credible rumor that Apple will unveil a tablet this month. An Australian publication, Smarthouse, has started a rumor that Google will soon unveil a Chrome OS tablet to compete with Apple’s upcoming tablet. Needless to say, there’s rumor based upon rumor here; however, it makes perfect sense considering Google’s assault on Apple.

Smarthouse reports that a Chrome OS Google tablet has been in development 18 months and it will be manufactured by HTC, the company that manufactures the upcoming Google Nexus One phone.

If you’re in Apple’s camp, Google’s camp or both, this sounds like good news because consumers will benefit from competitive pricing.

Maybe this year the Mac dude on television will be targeting an Googler and not the stodgy PC guy.

[via Gizmodo via Smarthouse]

You might also enjoy:

--Google Music to launch this Fall [Rumor] --Google to Launch Facebook Killer, “Google Me” [Rumor] --Five ways Google is taking a bite out of Apple (The Story of 2010) --Apple iPhone dual-booting Google Android… Really. [Video] --Upcoming Blackberry Slider to look like Palm Pre [rumor]

1. Phone Wars — Android vs. iPhone. This is the best known Google assault on Apple. Android offers everything Apple’s iPhone does and more. Android is a free operating system and completely open to app developers. There’s no wrangling with Apple over admission to the App Store.  To facilitate the creation of new Android apps, Google has offered six figure cash prizes in various categories to developers. While Google is playing catch up, it seems to be doing so at a very good pace.

Android is quickly becoming the choice for high-end device makers like HTC, which manufacturers the Droid Eris and expects to release many more Android phones in the next six months. While the Droid vs. iPhone debate seems to have gone to the iPhone, Android phones like Google’s own Nexus One will be more formidable competitors to the iPhone. It offers a 1 Ghz processor, 5 megapixel camera and the other hardware is comparable to the iPhone. Today, a French blogger got his hands on a Google Nexus One, which is supposedly only available to Google employees at the moment, and posted a video that shows off the Google Nexus One in action (warning: no sound and 10 minute video but for phone aficionados this is mobile phone porn). Additionally, the Google Nexus One will sell for substantially less than an iPhone. The Google Nexus One will have an unsubsidized retail price of $530, which is notably lower than both the iPhone and Motorola’s Droid. The only “catch” with the Google Nexus One is that initially the phone will only have support for the T-Mobile spectrum.

I suspect that at some point someone will wise up and use Android to make a competitor to the iPod Touch, which is essentially the gateway drug to the iPhone.

2. The Google Chrome Netbook vs. Apple’s Upcoming Tablet. This week the specs for the Google Chrome Netbook leaked. Its hardware beats virtually all other netbooks on the market and it has a 10″ touchscreen with multi-touch support. It will be able to support HD video. This is where it gets interesting… it will retail for approximately $300, according to many rumors.

Less is known about Apple’s upcoming tablet. It will be something like an oversized 10″ iPhone with no physical keyboard. More details will become available on January 26th when the tablet is expected to be unveiled. Preliminary speculation is that it will be named either iGuide or iSlate.

If rumors hold true about the price of the Google Chrome Netbook, then this is another significant attack on Apple.

3. Google’s Music Search vs. iTunes. This is a relatively minor attack but Google now streams music through its web interface. If you Google for an artist, some songs will appear and you can stream them in their entirety. In some cases, you can  purchase the tunes as MP3s through the providers of the streams. I speculate that Google is merely dipping its toes in the water at this point but you can expect a full blown music search and billboard rankings in the not-so-distant future.

4. Talent and Acquisitions. Google and Apple are competing for the same talent base and also seeking to acquire the same companies. Competitive bidding erupted over AdMob, an advertising companythat exclusively serves the mobile phone market. Google won the bidding but is facing some hassles from the FTC over antitrust issues. Google and Apple locked horns again over acquiring the music service Lala (which also relates to #3, above). Both Google and Apple seem to be moving in the same directions in terms of acquisitions.

5. Streaming Television and Video. This battle is in its infancy but will erupt in 2010. Both are seeking premium content from major networks, including first-run television shows. Google is seeking to supplement its YouTube with this content. AppleTV was an utter failure but with the upcoming Apple Tablet, expect Apple to make a further push into this arena.

Lesson to be learned: if Google thinks a company offers a good product at too high a price or leverages its technology in an unfair way (like the “closed” App Store vs. Google’s “openness”), you can expect Google to open up its coffers and pull out the heavy guns.

It is unclear who will “win” this war but keep this in mind: The potential downside for Apple is substantial. Apple lives and dies by the sale of hardware and iTunes music. Google could drop out of the hardware business tomorrow and give up on the music business and it would hardly put a dent in the company.

In 2009, the story was Google vs. Microsoft. Only Bing-Bats will still be debating that in 2010. The real 2010 Google war will be with Apple.

You might also enjoy:

--Google Teaming up with HTC to compete with Apple Tablet? [RUMOR] --Apple iPhone dual-booting Google Android… Really. [Video] --NEW: Tech Bottle has a Facebook page (and other ways to follow us)… --App Download Forecast for 2010-2015 by ABI Research --J.D. Power Smartphone Report 2010: Survey Says…

Unless you were born yesterday (which would really suck because of its proximity to Christmas), you already know that Google is fundamentally an advertising company. In 2008, Google generated over $21 billion dollars in revenue and over 95% of that revenue was generated by Google’s Adwords program. Year end numbers for 2009 will probably be at least as impressive. Google’s success, however, depends on it not remaining simply an advertising company.

The Google Revenue Equation Explained

Google makes money when someone clicks on sponsored web search result or an advertisement placed elsewhere by Google (like the advertisements to the right of this text). I emphasize the word “clicks” because the mere fact an advertisement displays does not, itself, generate any revenue for Google. The Google Adwords program only charges the advertiser if someone clicks on the advertisement. Similarly, Google’s Adsense program, the system that pays websites to display Google advertisements, only pays websites if the Google-placed advertisements displayed are actually clicked.

The Google “Revenue Equation” is really no secret: the more people online and the more time they spend online the more revenue Google generates. The reason this has held true (around $20 billion true in 2008) is that Google dominates online search and online advertising and many people click advertisements occasionally.

Problems with the Google Revenue Equation

Google relies heavily on its success in mapping and organizing the web via its proprietary search engine technology to generate revenue. While I do not know the breakdown of advertising revenue from *.google.com sites and other sites, I suspect that the vast majority of Google’s revenue is generated by sponsored search results and other advertisements on *.google.com. This is problematic because web searches are becoming less and less relevant to many web users.

First, there are other ways to satisfy curiosity, research and find relevant information–Wikipedia phenomenon. Any aggregator of information draws people away from Google’s web search. If you want a tidbit of information (ranging from the cast of a television show to information about aerospace), Wikipedia is a very good starting point. The footnotes can direct you to other websites, often more authoritative and more comprehensive than Wikipedia itself. Google is entirely shut out. However, it would be fair to point out that most Wikipedia pages are probably assembled with the assistance of Google’s search engine. But, keep in mind that there are far more readers of Wikipedia pages than there are authors. Although it is difficult to label Wikipedia a competitor of Google’s (Wikipedia is a 501(c)(3) under the tax code and presently generates more than 50% of its traffic from Google searches), it draws traffic away from traditional search engines. Again, any aggregator of information draws people away from Google’s web search.

Second, “sticky” social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter are drawing people away from websites that generate money for Google. Not only are more and more people joining these sites, many spend an increasing percentage of their online time on these sites. Furthermore, these sites are also becoming portals for real-time news reports, Twitter especially. Most major newspapers tweet breaking news and links to their news stories. Many blogs, including this one, generate more traffic from Twitter than from Google searches. As social networking sites add features, they also draw people away from some Google properties. For example, some people rely heavily on Facebook and Twitter for private messages and rely less on Gmail.

Third, newbies rely more heavily on Google’s search than experienced web users. Newbies often do not know where to begin or how to find content that will interest them. Experienced web users have found their favorite sticky websites and use bookmarks and favorites to organize them. I would argue that the attractiveness of running a broad-based web search diminishes substantially as a person spends more time online (an inherent problem in the Google Revenue Equation). Many people would rather search their favorite sites or specialized sites that have information that they find interesting. Also, I contend that newbies are more likely to click on advertisements than experienced web users for the reasons cited above and out of confusion. Accordingly, newbies are worth more to Google than experienced web users.

Fourth, a bubble could develop in the online advertising market. While there is unlikely to be a shift away from online advertising to other forms of advertising, the ROI for online advertising may become more transparent to advertisers in the future and some may choose not to invest heavily in online advertising. If this occurs, it would have a material effect on Google’s revenue.

Wait, Google’s Not Run by Dummies!

Google is is keenly aware of how to generate revenue and constantly and shrewdly diversifying.

First, Google is attempting to rely less heavily on the Google Revenue Equation. Google is successfully marketing to businesses and governmental entities its web-centric, cloud properties like Google Docs, Google Calendar, Gmail and other business tools as a replacement for hosted servers and Microsoft products. In doing so, Google seeks to generate a higher percentage of its overall revenue (something north of 5%) from non-advertising sources.

Second, Google is trying to bring the web to newbies, those that produce the most revenue for Google. Chrome OS is fundamentally all about bringing the web to people who either do not know how to use computers and/or do not have the need for sophisticated standalone software. It would be ideal for children, senior citizens who are not tech savvy and the developing world. First, it will be easy to use. It is simply a web browser–nothing more and nothing less. Second, it can run on very inexpensive hardware, thus bringing more people online. (Rumor has it that Google sent out an RFP to leading netbook manufacturers to mass manufacture a basic notebook that can run Chrome OS. I believe that Google can significantly profit by giving away (literally gratis) cheap Chrome OS netbooks to newbies.)

Third, Google is attempting to create its own sticky properties and acquire sticky properties. Orkut is a social networking site owned by Google but it has been a almost a complete failure (except in Brazil where it is the dominant online social network, I recall reading).

Google Wave could become a sticky property. First, Google Wave is Wiki-like, potentially drawing traffic away from sites like Wikipedia. Second, it has the potential to compete with social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter. Google Wave, however, is more difficult to understand and use than other forms of communication.

Google has sought to acquire sticky properties, most recently Yelp. I would expect Google to spend a significant percentage of its coffers on purchasing sticky properties. This will be a difficult path to pursue, however. Already, Google is encountering antitrust resistance to acquisitions. (We learned this week that Google is drawing FTC scrutiny of Google acquiring AdMob. This hints at what regulators think of Google making acquisitions, although AdMob is an advertising company, like Google.) Maybe Google will make a bid for Facebook one day? One hurdle, perhaps insurmountable, would be antitrust regulatory concerns under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act. Going with the Facebook hypothetical, Google could be on somewhat better legal ground, oddly enough, if it had never deployed Orkut.

Fourth, Google is trying to capitalize on real-time news and indexing of social networking sites. Not so long ago, Google inked a deal with Twitter to incorporate real-time Twitter results into its web search engine. Also, as it did with Google Finance, Google is experimenting with streaming real-time results.

Fifth, Google is actively looking for content that it can sell to subscribers. Google is seeking to add premium content to YouTube, including first run television shows which would stream without commercials. It faces stiff competition in this area from Apple which is aggressively pursuing major outlets for content deals.

Sixth, Google is diversifying away from the keyboard and web searches. Google is quite seriously entering the mobile devices arena (phones and tablets), not only by programming the Android OS but also by manufacturing the upcoming Google Nexus One handset. Google is looking to dominate voice transmission; Google Voice is simply the tip of the iceberg. Google acquired a VOIP provider this year and will roll out a Skype-like service which will integrate with Google Voice. When phone number porting is added to this equation, Google will be a juggernaut in the transmission of voice.

Bottom Line

Google is an advertising company and the Google Revenue Equation is ingenious and simple. However, Google’s success depends heavily on proactively pursuing revenue that is generated by other means. This clearly appears to be Google’s approach. Again, Google’s not run by dummies.

[Credit: Ben Parr, Co-Editor of Mashable, in his July 11, 2009 post entitled "The Google Revenue Equation, and Why Google’s Building Chrome OS," introduced me to the basics of the Google Revenue Equation.]

You might also enjoy:

--Google testing allowing some users to login to multiple Google accounts; Thank You! --Where Google is heading… Google Translation for Android --Google Diversification, Search Fading? --What Google could do to whip iTunes [Wired.com article] --Google Chrome OS World — Winners & Losers in the Paradigm Shift

Security and the “Public” Computer

The personal computer will become the public computer. Given the hardened security of Chrome OS (it repairs itself if it detects a problem and software cannot be installed), there’s virtually no threat to publicly available Chrome OS machines. I suppose the two primary threats are two-fold: online phishing scams and “cuckoo egg” machines (you heard it here first, I don’t know what else to call them).

Online phishing scams are not unique to public computers. They’re threats every web user faces and, with some minimal degree of security consciousness, can be avoided. Perhaps DNS redirects, like the one that hit Twitter the other night could compromise user data as well, e.g., if the redirect target is part of an elaborate phishing scam. But, in any event, they do not compromise a public Chrome OS computer.

A “cuckoo” egg machine, as I use the term, is something that has the look and feel of a Chrome OS machine but actually has a rogue OS installed. It’s a variation on the phishing scam but one that could be a more serious problem. Imagine a machine that boots like Chrome OS and harvests Gmail logins (which serve as user accounts on Chrome OS) and corresponding passwords. If installed in a public place, this could be a big problem… much worse than ATM hacks. Hardware manufacturers might be able to create machines incapable of running another OS. This would be a significant step in preventing the cuckoo egg attack; although, someone hell-bent on carrying out this scheme could invest in look-alike hardware.

In any event, Chrome OS will be the most hardened of all computer OSs, thus making it the best candidate for a “public computer.” Microsoft Windows machines in hotel lobbies will be replaced (and quite rapidly) with Chrome OS machines.

Yes, Google will manufacture (or outsource the manufacturing) of Chrome OS machines and will install them in public places… unfettered use will be completely free.

This is a no-brainer for Google. Keep in mind Google’s revenue equation. 97% of its revenue is generated by online advertising. Google’s revenue equation is time online generates money for Google. The more people online and the more time they spend online, the more revenue Google generates. We donate our eyes and our clicks and receive Google products for free.

Google is sitting on more than USD$20,000,000,000 (that’s 20 billion if you don’t want to count zeros) in cash. A Chrome OS computer could be manufactured for $150 or less, perhaps much less. I am writing on a netbook that sold at a discounted retail price of $200. It can run Windows 7, Ubuntu 9.10 and, yes, Chrome OS easily. Chrome OS is very light on resources. It’s basically just a Chrome browser!

Say Google installed a bank of Chrome OS public computers in an airport. Assume further that from time to time someone clicks on a Google ad. Even assuming that this happens infrequently, say once per hour, Google recoups the cost of the machine very quickly. I don’t have each figures on the average revenue generated by an individual click on a Google ad. In general, I know the range is wide because I have been an Google Adwords customer in the past and know that some keywords are cheap and others can be expensive. In any event, assume the average revenue generated by an individual click is $0.50 (could be disclosed in Google’s SEC reports). So, these are our variables… $0.50/hour generated on a machine that is manufactured for $150… in 300 hours (12.5 days!) the Chrome OS machine is profitable and the rest is pure gravy. The Chrome OS machine would generate $3,480 in revenue per year. The profit on the investment would be ($3,480-$150)/$150… 2,220% profit in one year on each Chrome OS machine that generates a single Adwords click per hour. Each Chrome OS machine basically prints money for Google!

Say my assumptions are way off.  Maybe by a factor of 24 on Adwords clicks (if for example, in the unlikely event Bing becomes popular or some shift occurs in online activity)… so, each Chrome OS machine generates $0.50 per day (obviously a gross underestimate–even a public payphone could still generate more than $0.50 per day) and we continue to assume that each machine costs $150. The machine would still be profitable after 300 days, less than a year.

What’s being left out of this equation?

Wifi/wiring/connectivity expense. Google is already giving away Wifi at airports. This is a sunken cost, in economic terms, and many facilities would adsorb the cost. This is already the case with free Wifi in many public places (coffee shops, fast food restaurants, hotels, libraries, etc.). Google could simply say that if any establishment will provide free Wifi, Google will donate Chrome OS machines.

Shipping and installation expense. Certainly this would be less than a $20 per Chrome OS machine, which hardly throws off the numbers. Also, Google could redeploy machines to maximize profits… from the library to the airport or vice versa at times.

Opportunity cost. Would these clicks occur without Google installing a Chrome OS machine? Well, yes, sometimes and no, sometimes. Maybe someone would be clicking from home instead of clicking in the coffee house. But in cases like airports and basically anywhere computers would be used and aren’t currently being used there’s enormous profit potential.

Theft/Blackmarket. Google might able to remotely disable a Chrome OS machine. Even if it couldn’t, would Google care if someone stole one and hocked it on eBay? As long as the Chrome OS machine is used and generates revenue, who cares?

Back the Original Point

The fact that Google wants to simplify the user-switch feature in Chrome OS and speed up the process suggests to me that this OS is being tweaked for public places. Why? Because Google absolutely will install or donate Chrome OS machines in very large numbers very soon.

Google needs to continue to “own” the web for this plan to succeed … but that’s true whether or not they give away the Chrome OS machines. Google needs to compete with upstarts and continue to generate revenue through online advertising.

P.S. $20,000,000,000 (Google’s cash on-hand) divided by $150 (cost per machine) is equal to 13.3 million Chrome OS machines.

You might also enjoy:

--Ubuntu Netbook Remix vs. Google Chrome OS [Netbooks] --Chrome OS Netbooks Arrive in June --Why Google won’t have antitrust issues with Chrome OS… --Google Chrome OS World — Winners & Losers in the Paradigm Shift --Try Google Chrome OS Now… Stratus0s

My Experience

As discussed, Chrome OS is just a boot up to a linux version of the Chome browser (and a very old version… no bookmark sync, extensions or fancy stuff). There’s no flashy boot screen yet (or shutdown screen? … nobody can seem to figure out how to shutdown the OS from within the gdgt build). It does show some promise… especially for Google. Logins are Gmail.coms. If you want to run it, you need to register with Google. Your entire experience in Chrome OS is essentially Google-centric.

Google’s Playbook

This is what I speculate is Google’s playbook: Step 1: Chrome OS is designed for getting people online who aren’t current online. I’m thinking senior citizens, young children and people with insignificant means like some in the developing world. Google just wants more eyeballs and clicks. Viewing and clicking ads are Google’s revenue equation. 97% of Google’s revenue is generated through advertising. Maybe the Chrome OS boot up screen and shutdown screen will be prime property for advertising one day (your undivided attention for a full 5 seconds or so). How much would an advertiser pay to be on every Chrome OS boot screen or shutdown screen for an entire day? Or break it up and target the ads to certain demographics. This will make Super Bowl advertising look like child’s play. I read today some speculation that Google could give away Android-based Nexus One smartphones and profit by bringing more people into the Google world. If that’s even within the realm of possibility, giving away low-end Chrome OS  netbooks seems even more plausible. Step 2: As the gateway drug to the web, more companies will focus on web-based apps or die. When this occurs, many computer users will only need Chrome OS.

Antitrust Issues

The developer build of Chrome OS that I installed comes pre-installed with links to Microsoft Hotmail and Yahoo Mail. These links are probably provided not to spread the adoption of Chrome OS but to alleviate the antitrust concerns that bad boy Microsoft created in the mid-1990s when it tied Internet Explorer to Windows, thus “suffocating” Netscape. But, this makes me ponder… what if the OS is the browser and only the browser? That is the essence of Chrome. Want to run Firefox? You can’t. Want to run Internet Explorer? No way. This differs from the Microsoft fiasco in a number of relevant ways.

First, Microsoft already had market dominance. Almost every PC came pre-installed with Windows or was designed specifically to run it. Chrome OS has zero percent market share. Google is doing a “reverse Microsoft”… like building Internet Explorer first and a crippled Windows second.

Second, Chrome OS is absolutely free. Google is giving it away. If you want Firefox or Internet Explorer, you can strip Chrome OS off your computer and load a different OS. In some cases, this may not be possible if your netbook doesn’t have sufficient specs to run a different OS. Keep in mind that Chrome OS is designed to run on as little as possible and really cheap netbooks may be manufactured that can essentially run Chrome OS and Chrome OS alone.

Third, we now live in a web-centric computing environment. Software has been replaced, essentially, with web apps and that’s where Google dominates. In the Microsoft case, Netscape needed access to the desktop. (For the legal types, think Otter Tail Power Company vs. United States.) Without adequate access, a company would be extinguished. Notably, we’re seeing the web-centric shift in the mobile platform too. I’ve recently read that some significant app developers disgusted with Apple’s App Store are now programming exclusively in HTML5 to get to the mobile market through the browser. Installation is being replaced with bookmarks and favorites. That’s the future of both computing and mobile devices.

Fourth, Google has the “do no evil” motto and I believe it…  but, more importantly, regulators believe it. The Google’s revenue equation just has to stay popular. With whom? Computer users, the voting public, elected officials and regulators. Google is branding the company in the best way possible. Most people pay nothing for Google services and enjoy them immensely.  What about free wifi in airports? Travelers love it.

So, I don’t really see a showdown between Google and government over Chrome OS and antitrust issues. Privacy is where the showdown will be and I’ll save that for another day.

Final Remarks

Google just has to avoid becoming bad boy Microsoft to reign supreme. Chrome OS is a significant component in the ingenious Google strategy. It’s not just a weak alternative to Windows. Donate your eyes and clicks and enjoy.

You might also enjoy:

--Chrome OS Netbooks — Hell Yes, Google will give away computers. --Google Chrome OS World — Winners & Losers in the Paradigm Shift --Try Google Chrome OS Now… Stratus0s --Google Chrome OS Business-Style in 2011 --Chrome OS World Weakest Link… Google Docs

This is not to say Mozilla is shaking in its boots, however. Google Chrome OS may not take off quickly (recall my post about the inability to install 3rd party software in Chome OS). Also, Mozilla is responsible for the Thunderbird, the best email client, which may be popular with those reluctant to rely on cloud storage. Finally, Mozilla’s Raindrop project could be a real win, although it will face still competition from Google Wave. The real question is how Mozilla can monetize Thunderbird and Raindrop. This may determine the fate of Mozilla.

[partly via GigaOM]

You might also enjoy:

--Mozilla Labs Raindrop (Efficiency) vs. Google Wave (Revolution) --Google Chrome OS Business-Style in 2011 --Thunderbird 3.0 E-mail… Hold Off Upgrading --UberTwitter for Blackberry, Upcoming Features… --Upcoming Blackberry Slider to look like Palm Pre [rumor]

Upon pondering the possibility of a Google Chrome OS World, I believe the weakest link to the widespread adoption of Chrome OS is Google Docs, the web-based word processor. I hadn’t used it until recently and I was actually quite impressed. Nonetheless, it is a poor replacement for Microsoft Word for people who do heavy-duty word processing. Will this slow the adoption of Chrome OS (which will not support the installation of software)?

This is a follow up to my post about Google Chrome OS yesterday entitled, “Google Chrome OS World — Winners & Losers in the Paradigm Shift.”

Brief Evaluation of Google Docs

Overall, Google Docs falls somewhere between Wordpad and Word. I suppose I could become accustomed to drafting in Google Docs. It would be adequate for drafting basic letters but more it struggles with more complicated documents. I uploaded some documents from Word and most rendered properly. However, more complicated documents, including those with sophisticated tables and complicated layouts missed the mark.

The pull down menus are similar to those in Office builds prior to Office 2007 (which replaced the pull down menus with ribbons). Accordingly, it is easy to learn if you you are familiar with the older Office builds.

It lacks some functions that may not be commonly used in Office but are important to some. Mail Merge, for example, isn’t there.  I also didn’t see a way to auto-generate a Table of Contents or Index.

Mashable’s Ben Parr recently ran a readers poll and Microsoft Office beat out Google Docs handily:  51% preferring Office, 37% preferring Google Docs and 12% voting no preference for one over the other.

Implications

Initially, Chome OS will be a netbook-only OS. I suppose that most netbooks are not used for heavy-duty word processing. For Google Docs to make the move to the desktop, however, it either needs improvements or Google needs to consider allowing Chrome OS to install other Linux software like OpenOffice.Org’s Office suite (which does not have the deficiencies mentioned above).

If Google Docs were improved sufficiently for business use, the Chrome OS World would come sooner rather than later.

You might also enjoy:

--Google Chrome OS World — Winners & Losers in the Paradigm Shift --Google Docs, New and Improved [VIDEO] --Mobile World Congress Feb. 15-18… Rumors and More --Google Chrome OS Business-Style in 2011 --Blackberry App World 2.0 Features

Brief Introduction

Chrome OS will initially be an alternate OS for netbook computers.  It will boot up fast, load the Google Chrome browser and do nothing more.  You will not have the ability to install additional software.  This benefits Google because, as Parr points out, Google reaps profits from people spending more time online.  Chrome OS promotes an entirely “webcentric” computing experience.  Gmail, Google Calendar, Google Wave, Google Docs, etc. will be the replacements for programs like Microsoft’s Office suite. Furthermore, most information will be stored online in the cloud.  If this shift occurs and Chrome OS eventually finds its way from netbooks to computers, I predict the following classes of winners and losers.

Industry Winners

1. Google wins and wins big.  Google has the best map for the web in its search engine and some of the very best webcentric applications.  Figuratively speaking, Google owns the web.

2. Companies that provide access to the web or own the underlying infrastructure.  Although competition will increase, the dominant players should benefit.

3. Sites that generate views and retain interest (“sticky” sites).  Facebook is a prime example.  Recently valued at around $9.5 billion, Facebook draws more people into the web and it probably among the stickiest of websites.  Companies like Facebook benefit in the same fashion as Google, through advertising revenue.

4. Content providers capable of producing sticky content.  Talented writers, reporters and bloggers serve to benefit by either publishing their own content or selling their services to sites.

5. Programmers who produce webcentric applications.

6.  Some low-end device manufacturers.  As more people shift to cloud computing and the Chrome OS, computers that are somewhat underpowered by today’s standards will be in demand.  Many computers will basically be “dumb terminals” merely capable of launching a browser, displaying pictures and streaming media.

Industry Losers

1.  Microsoft.  Microsoft lives and dies by the sales of software in boxes.  Remember, in Chrome OS, software cannot be installed.  Microsoft has very few webcentric properties and applications.  Nobody “Bings.”  The only somewhat serious webcentric utility Microsoft has is Hotmail/Live Mail which lags far behind Gmail in features.

2. Companies that piggyback on Microsoft sales.  Good examples are companies that write anti-virus software for Windows.

3.  Almost any software company that sells discs in boxes.  These companies will need to reprogram their applications to be entirely web-based or face extinction.

4.  Eventually high-end device mass manufacturers.  Probably for many years some industries will need to rely on software that can be installed.  The CAD industry, graphic designers (currently no suitable replacement exists for Adobe Photoshop in the webcentric world) and other technical software.  When these products become available in the webcentric world, only dumb terminals will be needed.

5. Companies that manufacture data storage for anyone but content providers, hard drive manufacturers specifically.  In the webcentric world, data is stored in the cloud.

6.  Old media (like print and radio which are already dying a slow death) and possibly cable television. In the webcentric world, everything is on-demand. As internet speeds increase, Chrome OS will be the vehicle through which users find content to enjoy. Content providers slow to adapt and provide all of their content through a browser will suffer.

Consumers Could Win

Consumers could benefit from a webcentric world.  Chrome OS is free.  Low-end hardware will be less expensive because devices will not be pre-packaged with Windows and there will be more demand for low-end hardware.  Competition in the access to the web will drive down the cost of access (driven in part by cellular companies and free Wifi spots).

Businesses may benefit.  Initially, there will be costs to revamp networks to run a webcentric system.  In the end, businesses may only have to pay for cloud expenses–online storage and perhaps online processing.  No more expensive servers.

Consumers Could Lose

The cloud could fail.  You could lose important information, all of it.  Redundancy, redundancy, redundancy and rewind will need to be prevalent in the webcentric world.

Google could “Go Rogue.”  Although highly unlikely, Google could begin charging for anything and everything at any rates it deems appropriate. Keep in mind that the Sherman Antitrust Act, the primary antitrust act in the U.S. used to regulate anti-competition, only applies to restraints on trade. Merely increasing prices (from free to the-sky-is-the-limit) is part of the capitalist system and not regulated.  Google has, thus far, avoided antitrust discipline because it has not engaged in any prohibited anticompetitive conduct. Perhaps legislators would keep a potentially “rogue” Google in check.

Become an Early Adopter?

If you want to try the webcentric world today, simply boot up your computer and delete everything but the browser.  Chances are good that you could accomplish most of what you want to do on the computer.  This could be where we are heading.

P.S. Follow up article.

You might also enjoy:

--Chrome OS World Weakest Link… Google Docs --Mobile World Congress Feb. 15-18… Rumors and More --Why Google won’t have antitrust issues with Chrome OS… --Google Chrome OS Business-Style in 2011 --Chrome OS Netbooks — Hell Yes, Google will give away computers.