In terms of the interwebs, the last decade could aptly be described as the search decade. Google ruled the day. As newbies came online Google was the launchpad where they all began. The company grew to a massive $170 billion market cap. It fended off competitors and, in the process, put more than a few out of business. By any measure, Google won the search war.
I predict that the next decade will be less about one single theme and significantly less about search. Obviously, I am on the outside looking in but these are my thoughts: Google is keenly aware of the fact that this transition is already occurring. To counter this anticipated reduction in traffic, Google has diversified into, well, just about everything relating to your preferences. Google continues to focus on its mission of organizing the world’s information. To do this, it needs to collect information. Where is lacks information, it devises a solution for obtaining it. In no particular order:
Whom do you phone? Google Voice.
To whom do you write? Gmail, Google Wave and Google Buzz.
What do you buy? Google Checkout and Google Product Search.
What do you watch on television? Google TV, which is anticipated to launch with Sony next month.
What do you read? Google Reader and Google Scholar, despite some bumps in the road.
Where do you eat? Google Maps, 800-GOOG-411, Google Places.
What ailments do you have? Google Health, although it appears to be a flop.
Where do you work? Google Profiles.
Where do you live? Google Maps.
What do you look like? Google Profiles and Google Visual Search, perhaps tied together one day.
Where are you? Latitude, Google Buzz and Google Places.
Where did you go and where will you go? Google Calendar.
And, I’m sure I’m missing more than a few fronts where Google is amassing information. As we all know, Google collects this information to sell advertisement space on your screens and mobile devices tailored to you. The genius of this all is that people actually trust Google, perhaps rightfully so. Advertisers do not have access to the answers to every question above, only Google does. Google has been and will be fundamentally an advertising intermediary. The game has changed: it’s no longer about finding something.com hidden away somewhere in the deepest depth of the internet but it’s more likely about giving you what you want, often for free, in exchange for your preferences. What do we receive for free? Search, email, voice transmission, video transmission, web apps, operating systems (albeit not directly but, rather, by eliminating the OS “tax” on devices), news, financial information and the list goes on and on. Most of the world has decided that we benefit from this exchange of preferences for free services. It’s really a unique and fascinating model. Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, recently used the term “platform provider” to describe what Google wants to become. It’s a unique type of company unlike any other.
[As an aside, contrast the Google model with Facebook which simply wants to collect your preferences and share them with the world. The Facebook model is a far less comfortable compromise for the person the least bit concerned about privacy.]
Google is diversifying in other ways too. Google Apps, the enterprise version of the free online office suite, will probably meet with tremendous success. This arena is monetized differently. No business enterprise wants to share its confidential information with Google in exchange for advertisements. Instead, for a reasonable cost, companies pay for the cloud-based services. Google Apps fundamentally differs from just about every other Google property in this regard.
Google sits on a boatload of cash right now and could diversify into other areas as well. It dipped its toes into the hardware water with the Nexus One but I do not anticipate a significant push in the hardware direction. Google simply wants more, better information and faster. By diversifying, Google has solidified itself as the conduit through which we deposit our preferences and information and donate some eyeball movements and mindshare to advertisements that we might find appealing.
[I will likely write a follow-up piece regarding competition in the "platform provider" business with a focus on Facebook.]
Google Wave was a novelty this year–perhaps the pet rock of 2009. It seems like everyone wanted an invitation to preview Google Wave but few actually waved. Maybe there’s a clandestine group of hard core wavers. In any event, the wave shows significant potential and a few videos have surfaced that demonstrate the full capabilities of Google Wave. Today, Whirled Interactive released a YouTube video that very topically shows off their waving (surfing?) talents. Waving Goodbye to 2009:
[via Eric Zeman @ InformationWeek]
Kudos to the Google Wave team for soliciting feedback a second time from those who are kicking the tires of the Google Wave preview. This time around, there’s no lengthy survey and 1 through 10s. Simply add wave.stories@googlewave.com to any impressive wave you want to show off to Google or send a new wave to that address with a link to a blog post about Google Wave.
[via Stephanie Hannon @ The Google Wave Blog (Official)]
Will Google Wave enforce a quota system on users like Gmail? How can this be done?
If you kicked the tires in Google Wave, you might have also noticed the image to the right which shows some ghosted options for transferring files to a wave. There are similar options under images, some of which are not ghosted. This prompted me to consider storage capacity for waves, particularly public waves. Presumably, Google is not planning on allowing people unlimited wave storage. Gmail doesn’t.
So, assuming they implement a quota system, how would that work? You create a wave. Your friends dump files and videos into it. They are stored in the wave, I believe. Who owns the wave for quota purposes? Specifically, I was thinking about public waves. I create a wave about the latest gadget and 40 people upload HD videos into the wave. Are they counted against my quota? Alternatively, are those videos stored outside of the wave in their own directories? If so, what happens to the wave if they delete the HD videos? Placeholders?
Mozilla Labs, the group behind the enormously successful Firefox browser and Thunderbird e-mail client, has a monster of a program in the works named “Raindrop.” Raindrop will be a central hub for online communication. It will integrate e-mail, RSS feeds, Facebook, Twitter and instant messaging into one downloadable program. Like Firefox and Thunderbird, it will support add-on extensions. This may seem similar to Google Wave — bringing multiple forms of online communication together into a central interface. There is one fundamental difference, however.
After you register for Google Wave, you will probably want to set up e-mail notifications of new or updated waves. Receiving e-mail notifications is simple. Just add wave-email-notifications@appspot.com as a contact in Google Wave. Then create a new wave to that contact. Wait a few seconds and then click the star button. You’re all set.
Click the image to the right to take you to the Google Wave E-mail Notifications project.
If you were nominated for a Google Wave Preview invitation by an initial waver and received one, you may have received invitation privileges today. Check your Google Wave inbox for the “Invite others to Google Wave” wave. Click the image to see a full size picture of the wave.
Google Wave just put out a survey about the Google Wave Preview on Twitter this evening. You can find it here: http://bit.ly/u1N61 . If you are participating in the Google Wave Preview, I encourage you to complete the survey. It is very long but covers almost every aspect of Google Wave, including its current deficiencies. Specifically, I would like to see improved scrolling and a mobile version of Google Wave. Check. That is covered in their survey. They now know that. Kudos to the Google Wave team for putting out the survey and checking with the users. I betcha that some of this feedback is acted upon quickly.
Eric Schimdt, CEO of Google, recently spoke about the scarcity of Google Wave invites and the timeline for further rollout. Less than one week ago, he said, “[Google's Wave team is] getting ready for a much broader distribution. Ready means very soon. Very soon is like weeks not years.”
Many people are still actively seeking access to Google Wave, the next generation e-mail, instant messaging and collaboration service. A quick search on Twitter for “Google Wave” shows that the vast majority of chatter is still about access. What can you do to get a Google Wave invite now? Continue reading »



