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There is no doubt that the market for mobile apps is on fire. ABI Research is predicting enormous growth in app downloads in 2010 followed by modest growth through 2013 and then the trend will move downward. See the figure below:
As the graphic shows, ABI Research believes Apple will continue to be the dominant player in the app arena. They predict Android will follow in second place with over 800 million app downloads in 2010.
When I look at the graphic and read their report, I question whether they have all of this right. I’d question just about anyone who tells me they can predict where technology will be in 2015. While iPhone and Android are almost certain to dominate for awhile, Palm may not exist much longer and ABI predicts substantial app downloads on Palm through 2015. Further, Blackberry OS app development is still in the dark ages and may never break out to the high numbers they are predicting. Furthermore, ABI predicts the following:
Revenues from mobile app sales, however, are expected to decline by 2012, as competition has led to downward pressure on application prices; and a greater proportion of “must-have” applications will begin to have free or advertising-supported substitutes. In addition, many handset makers such as Nokia, and Motorola with its Android handsets, have started to bundle applications that allow users to connect to popular social networks, instant messaging, and GPS services.
While that’s all reasonable, the report says nothing about a potential shift from an app-centric mobile world to a browser-based HTML5 or Flash handheld world. I suppose they’ve left room to re-forecast between now and 2015.
P.S. Fellas, “Series” was dropped from the name of Windows Phone 7 last week.
[via IntoMobile]
According to iPhone Footprint, Google’s Nexus One outsold the iPhone worldwide by 16% in February 2010.* This gap is likely to widen very soon when the CDMA version compatible with Verizon Wireless is released.
I see a number of reasons why the Nexus One is globally popular. Google is known as one of the world’s best brands. The Nexus One has industry-leading hardware, including a 3.7″ AMOLED touchscreen. The phone is reasonably priced off-contract, which is very important to non-U.S. markets where the subscription/subsidy mobile model does not exist.
Android is on a tear lately and now accounts for almost as much smartphone traffic as the iPhone. See below:
I believe that the chart above represents the single biggest reason iPhone exclusivity in the U.S. will end this year. Apple needs market share, plain and simple.
Will the next-generation iPhone close the gap that is likely to develop or is this a case of “openness” winning?
*Update: The iPhone Footprint report does not cite any sources for the proposition that the Nexus One outsold the iPhone by 16% in February. This is unconfirmed. Thank you to my Google Buzz followers for their noteworthy correction.
This demo video was posted to YouTube about 2 months ago and has over 75,000 views but I still think the Nokia N900 is flying under the radar, at least here in the U.S. It is a 5:33 video but I recommend watching, at a minimum, the beginning which demonstrates the home screen and widgets and the 4:30 mark to the end which demonstrates the 3D graphics capabilities and gaming possibilities. And, what’s cooler than the demonstrator saying “cool” after showing off every feature!
Kudos to Nokia for bringing to market a phone that rivals a computer.
Although the Nokia N900 smartphone will the most powerful device in the market very soon, it has flown under the radar and NOK has been relatively flat. In the past 6 months, NOK is down 1.37%. This is somewhat of a surprise considering the run-up in Motorola (NYSE:MOT) of 51.89% over the same period, propelled almost exclusively by the Droid. I am not in the business of predicting stock prices nor do I have a position in either company. That said, is Wall Street overlooking the potential of the N900 and only wagering on market leaders and the Google Android device manufacturers? (Click the graphic on the upper right to show relative price changes in device manufacturers over the past 6 months.)
