There is no doubt that the market for mobile apps is on fire. ABI Research is predicting enormous growth in app downloads in 2010 followed by modest growth through 2013 and then the trend will move downward. See the figure below:

As the graphic shows, ABI Research believes Apple will continue to be the dominant player in the app arena. They predict Android will follow in second place with over 800 million app downloads in 2010.

When I look at the graphic and read their report, I question whether they have all of this right. I’d question just about anyone who tells me they can predict where technology will be in 2015. While iPhone and Android are almost certain to dominate for awhile, Palm may not exist much longer and ABI predicts substantial app downloads on Palm through 2015. Further, Blackberry OS app development is still in the dark ages and may never break out to the high numbers they are predicting. Furthermore, ABI predicts the following:

Revenues from mobile app sales, however, are expected to decline by 2012, as competition has led to downward pressure on application prices; and a greater proportion of “must-have” applications will begin to have free or advertising-supported substitutes. In addition, many handset makers such as Nokia, and Motorola with its Android handsets, have started to bundle applications that allow users to connect to popular social networks, instant messaging, and GPS services.

While that’s all reasonable, the report says nothing about a potential shift from an app-centric mobile world to a browser-based HTML5 or Flash handheld world. I suppose they’ve left room to re-forecast between now and 2015.

P.S. Fellas, “Series” was dropped from the name of Windows Phone 7 last week.

[via IntoMobile]

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According to iPhone Footprint, Google’s Nexus One outsold the iPhone worldwide by 16% in February 2010.* This gap is likely to widen very soon when the CDMA version compatible with Verizon Wireless is released.

I see a number of reasons why the Nexus One is globally popular. Google is known as one of the world’s best brands. The Nexus One has industry-leading hardware, including a 3.7″ AMOLED touchscreen. The phone is reasonably priced off-contract, which is very important to non-U.S. markets where the subscription/subsidy mobile model does not exist.

Android is on a tear lately and now accounts for almost as much smartphone traffic as the iPhone.  See below:

I believe that the chart above represents the single biggest reason iPhone exclusivity in the U.S. will end this year. Apple needs market share, plain and simple.

Will the next-generation iPhone close the gap that is likely to develop or is this a case of “openness” winning?

*Update: The iPhone Footprint report does not cite any sources for the proposition that the Nexus One outsold the iPhone by 16% in February. This is unconfirmed. Thank you to my Google Buzz followers for their noteworthy correction.

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Some analysts are now projecting that Palm stock will go down to zero. This perplexes me because WebOS and the patent portfolio alone are worth something to somebody. There’s even speculation that Google will acquire Palm to obtain the patent portfolio. The writing was on the wall that the downward trend would continue for Palm when it decided not to attend the Mobile World Congress 2010. I was writing about Palm “slipping further into oblivion” in early February.

Nonetheless, I’m not in the business of predicting stock prices and I want to clarify a remark I recently made about RIM (which included a stock chart for Nasdaq:RIMM). In my post about the Crowd Science survey, I commented:

Perhaps if RIM’s stock is beaten up badly (it still has a market cap of $42B), it could become a takeover target.

While I stand by the remark, I don’t mean to imply that RIM has no hope for the future. RIM is executing a strategy that could work.

As any Blackberry user will tell you, app development for the Blackberry plainly sucks compared to iPhone and Android. I don’t foresee this changing and I don’t think RIM does either. Instead, RIM is betting that mobile apps will be replaced by platform independent mobile web apps. RIM’s energy is focused on its WebKit web browser which was demoed at the MWC 2010. While it wasn’t included in Blackberry OS 5.0, it will almost certainly be a highlight of OS 6.0. Recently, images of the OS 6.0 interface leaked (via BBLeaks.com) which appear to me to be authentic. They include:

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

In my opinion, the biggest take away from the photos is the use of widgets and feeds. Useful widgets could make Blackberry competitive even if traditional app development significantly lags other platforms. Also, current Blackberries have no native support for RSS feeds. In fact, at holiday time, Crackberry.com sponsored a petition to request Google to develop an RSS reader for the Blackberry which evidently failed. If Blackberry had native support for RSS feeds, this would be a huge plus. Many Blackberry users use the very popular Viigo app but it has limitations and cannot run in a widget mode.

RIM is updating its Blackberry Internet Service (BIS) service on March 28th which will, among other things, improve Gmail integration. This is a significant step in the right direction for non-corporate customers.

The leaked photos of the Blackberry Slider (Codenamed “Mr. T”) were poorly received in the Blackberry community but the device could be a surprise success. While the Palm Pre never really lived up to expectations, the Blackberry Slider has a larger screen and better branding. Some are speculating that the device will be released in April. I doubt that it will. As I mentioned before, BGR reported that the Slider has been failing internal testing. RIM employees should be working day and night to work out the problems because many of Verizon’s Blackberry customers, me included, are seriously interested in the Android phones. Both the Nexus One and HTC Incredible will be released for Verizon within the next few weeks. Perhaps I’m stating the obvious: The later the release of the Blackberry Slider, the less likely it is to penetrate the increasingly competitive smartphone market.

In other RIM news, a new Blackberry manufacturing plant will be opened in Latin America soon.

Unlike Palm, which basically curled into the fetal position and died, RIM has a strategy. Its success depends on many factors but it could succeed. I’m not betting money one way or another.

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AdMob just released a report that analyzes various metrics to compare users of the following devices: iPhone, iPod Touch, Android and Palm’s WebOS (notably missing–RIM). The metrics are age, gender, app downloads, app purchases, and likelihood of recommending the device to a friend or colleague.  CNN has a pretty good take on the report, along with charts. You can find it here: http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/02/25/6-ways-iphone-and-android-users-differ/

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Click to Visit MWC2010 Website

While certainly overshadowed by the Olympics, there is another international event taking place this week. It is the Mobile World Congress 2010 which takes place February 15-18. This is the premiere event for mobile device manufacturers. 47,000 attendees are expected and over 1,300 companies will exhibit products.  Based on rumors and some bona fide news, we can expect the following:

• KEYNOTE: Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, will be the keynote speaker. He is expected to speak about “openness” and how it relates to the mobile market. (It basically means Google believes it can beat the competition silly in a fair fight. Which makes one wonder, will there continue to be fair fights after Google beats everyone silly?)
• MICROSOFT: Microsoft could unveil Windows Mobile 7. Some are predicting a new line of Microsoft phones in lieu of a WinMo 7 debut. It is expected to incorporate many of the Zune HD features. (WinMo 7 could make Microsoft relevant in the mobile market. Presently, WinMo has under 8% of smartphone marketshare. I expect that WinMo 7 will be heavily marketed along with Microsoft’s Bing search (which, suprisingly, is gaining in popularity and has 9% of the internet search market).)
• HTC: HTC, the Taiwanese manufacturer of the Nexus One, could steal the show. Pictures and videos have surfaced of upcoming devices, including the HTC Incredible and WiMax capable smartphones. Presumably, some of the HTC lineup will be on display at the MWC2010. (I’m hoping at least one of the better HTC phones touches down on Verizon. Full disclosure: I am likely to switch to an HTC Android phone if Verizon wises up and begins offering handsets that compete directly with the Motorola Droid. As an aside, I’m still curious what the ROI was on the $100 million campaign to sell the Droid.)
• SONY: Sony will unveil the much-anticipated, and potentially over-hyped, X10. (Yeah, I hyped it on the blog too.)
• PALM: Palm is a complete and utter no show. They will unveil nothing. Nada. (Palm slips further into oblivion.)
• RIM: RIM has nothing to show or could unveil the “Dakota” or “Magnum” which is basically an enlarged candybar Blackberry with a traditional keyboard and a touchscreen. (RIM needs to figure out how to emulate Android and run Android apps; this could be virtually (no pun intended) impossible. RIM is practically guaranteed to lose marketshare in the next few years. No longer will it be able to ride on the coattails of the Curve 8330 users. When they’re up for new phones, other platforms will look much more attractive. I also think Verizon is unlikely to promote the hell out of any Blackberry product after repeated strains on their relationship.)

More to come when the MWC2010 begins. For pics and vids of the wares live from the event, I recommend the site IntoMobile.com.

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The much-anticipated Palm Pixi is now available from Sprint.  Below is a quick comparison of how it stacks up against its big brother, the Palm Pre.

Physics: The Pixi keyboard is always accessibe.   The Pixi follows the Blackberry bar model and does not slide open to unveil a hidden keyboard like the Pre.  This may seem like a drawback but it is probably a big plus. Some Pre users complained that the slider made the phone highly susceptible to damage.

Camera:  The Pixi has a downgraded camera from the Pre, 2.0 mega-pixels.  If you are a shutterbug, this could be very important.  Most new smartphones have 3.0 mp or better cameras, up to 5.0 mp.

Memory:  Neither phone supports MicroSD cards and both have a total of 8 gb on-board memory, with about 1 gb dedicated to the operating system.  This is light by today’s standards and those looking for an all-in-one (the “ditch the iPod crowd”) may be disappointed.

Data Speeds:  Both support EVDO Rev. A speeds through Sprint.  The Pixi lacks Wifi connectivity, however.  For web surfers, this could be a deciding factor in favor of the Pre.  Wifi enables much faster data transfer in hotspots than EVDO Rev. A.  (Wifi is not absolutely essential to a smartphone but the hardware is inexpensive and this could detract from sales.  This is a poor decision on Palm’s part.)

Battery Life:  The Pixi has slightly better battery life than the Pre.  This is expected because the screen is smaller.

Wallet and Overall Assessment:  The Pixi has a price tag $50 cheaper than the Pre.  For those considering a Palm device, the physics, cameras and Wifi-capabilities are the primary differences one ought to consider.

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